Shoot first, ask questions later

One of this blog's co-founders has moved to Indiana. Me, for graduate school. It all happened so fast. Since I missed the first Utah Jazz-Denver Nuggets game (I watched it the next day, which caused puking) on account of studying for the GRE, which I would take the next morning, I thought tonight might be an appropriate time to attempt a live blog.

I don't even know if I can entertain myself for the entire game, much less anyone else. That being said, I dedicate this to B, his brother Pail Millsap, and Sloan'd's one reader, Holdinator.

***You know how us Westerners thinks it's stupid for Easterners to not stay up a little later to watch West Coast basketball (as well as football and baseball) games? I'm no defending them, but it IS tough. It's 10:30 here in the EST. If not for the dearth of Jazz games I get to watch on TV, I would have started this game with no intention to finish it.

***Chris Anderson must have been strung out while the rest of us were making fun of Mike Tyson's face tattoo.

***Watch I'm watching for early: The other night, Steve Luhm (Salt Lake Tribune) said the ball moves better when Gordon Hayward is on the court. Keepin' tabs.

***Geez louise, Hubie Brown, get off Hayward's back. We know he's a whipper-snapper, but he deserves a fair chance.

***Deron Williams is so excited to be back on the court. Check his happy feet on defense. (the set-up)

***Kyrylo Fesenko is so excited to be back on the court. Check the usage of his brain. (punch line)

***In a Google image contest, "silly fesenko" beat "dumb fesenko," "brainless fesenko," and "naked fesenko."

***The first quarter of this game is over. For the rest of the Jazz players' lives, they will have to live with getting outscored 24-23 by the Denver Nuggets in the first quarter on February 4, 2011. You can never take this away from the Nuggets.

***Pail Millsap is not impressed with Fesenko's performance. Says we know Fesenko can do this against the Nuggs. Wants to see his boy Kyrylo do it against other teams too. @Del_Taco

***Jeremy Evans gets up and stays up. Cialis.

***Call your doctor is J.E. spends more than four minutes on the court at a time.

***I also dedicate this live blog session to Bryon Russell. Like him, I believe I am much better than I am.

***Start thinking of songs to dedicate to the Jazz's first-half performance. If a Youtube of the best one exists, I will post it.

***Williams' new birth control must really be working.


***What if the Jazz, like the Lakers, Celtics and Spurs, are built to win in the playoffs, not necessarily the regular season? Chickenshit, or no?

***Andrei Kirilenko looks like a girl who hasn't been asked to dance all night. "There's really nobody I'm interested in anyway. It's okay. My acne has nothing to do with this. So what if I never use a curling iron?"

***You can never take this halftime lead away from the Utah Jazz. The record will always show that they led 50-47 at the midway point.

***Any songs you want to dedicate to the Jazz's first-half efforts?

***Uhhhhhh ... self bang?


***For Jeremy Evans:


***Halftime song dedication:


***So far, and in so many ways, this video personifies the Jazz's second half:


***What I'm surprised Hubie Brown hasn't said: "Utah needs to be careful. They just got three dunks in a row. They're not a team know for their dunks."

***The look on Bell's face after J.R. Smith pushed him down said, "Ah, good, I still got it."

***Holy cow. A scuffle. I've been wanting this for three years. I need to go back and watch it again.

***That scuffle was the best Utah Jazz moment since they made the 2007 Western Conference Finals. Williams probably should have gotten tossed too.

***The lineup the Jazz had during that mix-up was perfect -- Roger Bell, Al Jefferson, Williams, Paul Millsap and Earl Watson. There's a lot of pride there. They all knew exactly what to do. Bell started it, and it was smart of him to not get involved because he would have at least received a technical foul, and possibly a tossing. Williams was the closest teammate, which requires him to push J.R. Smith, which he did. Millsap and Jefferson got there soon after to separate the fighters, but to also speak some fighting words. Finally, Watson was further away, but when he got to the scene, he got right up with the rest of the crowd. Everyone had Bell's back, and now the youngsters, like Calvin Miles, Hayward, and Fesenko, know what to do when a fellow Jazzman gets mugged. I have a feeling Francisco Elson and Ronnie Price were so pissed they weren't able to get involved.

***Al Jefferson has offered his fellow Jazz a ride on his back in this fourth quarter.

***Friend Bryan text messaged me: "This might gel us, man. D(eron)Will(iams) pushing was HUGE." It's true. Look at all the Jazz since the fight, they're feeling badass.

***That being said, Utah MUST finish this game. They were in the Nuggets' head. They have to throw the knockout punch.

***One more thing: That near-fight probably turns out completely different if Kirilenko is on the floor.

***Great win, worth staying up until 1:30 a.m. for.

***It is hard to predict anything with these modern Jazz, but the roles of this team might have been determined today.
Al Jefferson is the go-to guy on offense who can also make huge plays on defense.
Deron Williams is the best player.
Roger Bell now knows he is free to instigate because his teammates got his back.
Paul Millsap is the role player. He'll score some big hoops, grab some crucial rebounds, and make a few plays on defense. He also bails out Williams when Yaz gets erratic.
Earl Watson is the calmer. While Williams can get crazy, Watson can bail him out when they're playing together, or sub in for him and slow the Jazz's roll.
Calvin Miles is a less reliable version of Millsap.
Kyrylo Fesenko goes into Denver and takes a few huge dumps.
Francisco Elson and Ronnie Price come in and do veteran things.
Gordon Hayward and Jeremy Evans do rookie things.
If Mehmet Okur every plays consistent minutes, he'll be the shooter off the bench.
This might just be the game that leads the Jazz to pull the trigger on a salary dump deal. What does he bring that the Jazz don't already have with the above players?

***Then again, this Jazz team has not established an identity since John Stockton and Karl Malone left. Every time these Jazz seem to have it figured out, they forget it.

That being said, I think Utah is about at the beginning of one of their All-Star break hot streaks.

Jazz must take advantage of the homecourt advantage shift

In an article about the NHL playoffs, E.J. Hradek wrote that since 1998 each Stanley Cup-winning starting goalie had a save percentage of at least 90%. "You don't build a percentage like that just by making all the routine stops," Hradek wrote. "You build it by also coming through with the spectacular save at the critical moment."

The Utah Jazz did the spectacular by stealing homecourt advantage away from the Denver Nuggets on Monday. Really, it was spectacular. First, the Jazz won in Denver, which has been a struggle for them. Second, they didn't wait until the series was out of hand to start fighting back, like they have in the last few playoff rounds.

Now, they head back home to what might seem like the routine: Win two games at home. But it isn't routine, and if Utah considers it that way, they will probably find themselves on the business end of the Nuggets pulling off "the spectacular". That is, retaking the favorable homecourt circumstance.

Winning Game 2 in Denver was an impressive feat, and it was indeed spectacular, but it gets canceled out if Denver gets all spectacular in Game 3 or 4.

The Jazz need to realize a few things. One, the ESA (I abbreviate because Energy Solutions hates it) hasn't been the Impenetrable Fortress that Larry Built like it has been the last few seasons. Two, Denver won in ESA without Carmelo Anthony and without Chauncey Billups. It was one of the two biggest WTF losses the Jazz had this season. The other was to the Bryant-less Lakers on 10 February.

Utah must protect Larry's house. (I use that phase in mockery. Under Armor has yet to become anything other than Douchebagwear. Click, clack.) Here are three factors to doing so, and thereby adding a capital 's' to the spectacular they have already done.

Replacing Okur



A lot about Okur won't be replaced. Namely, his shooting and the gumption to mock Kobe Bryant.



But without him, the Jazz can clog the middle a little bit with Fesenko and sometimes Koufos, or they can put Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap on the floor at the same time for large chunks of time. These two can be an effective tandem the more Boozer's injury heals and if Millsap starts making free throws.

By the way, I hate that NBA teams can go from Monday to Friday without playing, but it has to be a good thing for the Jazz this year on account of Mr. Boozer and other dinged Jazz having three days to take it a little easier.

CJ Miles and Kyle Korver need to continue to make huge plays on offense, and Miles needs to continue to irritate Carmelo Anthony.

Breaking the press

I was going to make what I felt was an astute observation, but I caught part of 1320 KFAN's Locked on Sports Rewind yesterday wherein David Locke made the same point, only he also had statistics to back it up. Anyway, the press by Denver on Monday was genius. A few days later, I remembered that George Karl did the same thing to John Stockton when Karl was the Seattle Supersonics coach.

There was really only one point guard who was in Stockton's league in the 1990s, Gary Payton. He and Stockton had some good head-to-head playoff and regular season matchups. What made playing Seattle even more difficult for the Jazz (along with Detlef Schrempf out-classing Bryon Russell), was an incredible 3/4-court press. It almost always killed the momentum of the Utah's offense. Stockton would have to attack the press to make two player commit to defending him, then dribble backwards to reset the offense and find someone to pass the ball to or an open spot to penetrate in order to get the ball across halfcourt. A lot of time it was fun to watch Stockton break the press down, but it was also a difficult watch because there were times where the press was impossible to break. The only team against whom Stockton didn't control the pace of play was the Supersonics.

I'm getting kind of confident that my Nuggets-in-six prediction is going to be incorrect.

Don't worry, tired Jazz, the postseason will be short

I keep assuming the Utah Jazz are going to defeat the Denver Nuggets in the playoff series that starts tonight. It is dumb. First, I was assuming the Jazz would beat the Los Angeles Lakers a few weeks ago--on the road. Second, when I think about what wins a playoff matchup, the Jazz don't really have any edges over the Nuggs, besides coaching.

Elite Player in the Series

Carmelo Anthony. This isn't even close. Anthony averaged 28.2 points per game against the entire NBA this season and 33.5 against the Jazz (in two games). Worse yet, Utah has not shown any ability to control this man. I forgot, does he still wear a headband? I seem to remember him ending that fashion practice. If he has stopped, I like him 20 percent more than if he still wears it.

Health

Edge: Nuggets

Kenyon Martin has been hurt recently, and but is back. He might be slowed a bit, but his anger is the most important thing he brings to the Denver squadron.
The Jazz are still missing Andrei Kirilenko. Their best player, Carlos Boozer, is back but hurting. Mehmet Okur has been playing hurt recently. Deron Williams is probably ailing too. His ball handling, passing and decision making have been to sketchy over the last 10 games for nothing to be wrong with him. Then again, maybe he is just really sad that Ronnie Brewer is no longer a Jazz.

Momentum

Edge: Neither. Both were 6-4 over the final 10 games. The Jazz only played good in one of those games, versus Oklahoma City. Even in that game, though, the defense was non-existent.

Leadership

Edge: Denver.

Denver has Chauncey Billups, the Jazz kind of have Boozer, and sometimes Williams. Wesley Matthews will probably take his place as the Utah's leader sometime next season, but he is still a rookie and I think Williams would hate a rookie telling him to sack up a bit.

Toughness

Edge: Denver

Martin, Nene, Chris Anderson and Billups are tougher than Boozer, Matthews, Williams, Paul Millsap and Ronnie Price. I wish this were closer than it is. Maybe Matthews will inspire his teammates. Matthews is good Jazz.

Athletes

Edge: Nuggets

The Jazz aren't as nonathletic as most think, but they don't stack up with Anthony, Anderson, Martin, JR Smith and Nene

Shooters

Edge: Denver

The Jazz have Okur, Kyle Korver, Williams, Matthews and Calvin Miles. All can be good shooters, but none are automatic. For Denver, Anthony won't be stopped. Then there is JR Smith. Which brings us to....

The Wildcard

Edge: Denver

This could also be the ticking time bomb. JR Smith can light any team up. He will probably win one game by himself this series.

Coaching

Edge: Utah

Jerry Sloan versus an interim coach is not even fair. Hopefully Adrian Dantley will blow a close game.

See what I mean? The Jazz are toast.

Denver also has homecourt. Utah is a better road team, but they have been terrible in Denver.

Prediction: Denver in 6

For the Jazz to win this series:

1)Someone needs to catch fire. This is unlikely. Utah's offense has been pretty bad lately.
2)Boozer's injury can't be a factor. He needs to be able to extend on his post shots.
3)The Jazz be scared in the playoffs like the have been the last two years. They have a tendency to avoid making passes that involve even the slightest risk. So, they never make a pass into the post, or a pass off penetration.
4)Matthews needs to guard Anthony, and do a good job. Kirilenko wouldn't stop Anthony, so maybe it is a good thing he is out for the series. It might force Matthews to defend Anthony. Matthews is a much better on-the-ball defender than Kirilenko.
5) Someone needs to start a fight in one of the first two games. I nominate Kyle Korver, but it will probably be Price.

I'm still assuming victory, but I know that I am just being an (J)azz.